In 2017, the LED industry is full of variables, and how to analyze the development of LED history in the past to analyze the future development of the industry.As a result, the market for LED chips has been running out of demand, so the market for LED chips has fallen into a fierce price competition.
On December 21, 2017, the 2018 LED market forward analysis conference (shenzhen station), jointly held by the LEDinside and China LED network, will open the curtain at the JW marriott hotel in jinmao shenzhen.The meeting was packed and packed. (LED tube light)
The analysis will take "outlook on industry transfer trend, grasp the new way of thinking" competition in the industry as the theme, LEDinside SIRS analysts and digital senior industry is small spacing, CSP, automotive lighting, LED chip competitive landscape, and other issues of comprehensive interpretation. (LED tube light)
At the beginning of the meeting, TrendForce's LEDinside research collaboration was held in the opening speech, thanking all the participants and then giving a speech.This article will summarize the main content of the speaker's speech, so as to treat the readers who are not present. (LED tube light)
The past and future of LED industry.
LEDinside research collaboration is stored in the super.
2017 is a year of uncertainty for the LED industry.In the course of transformation, LED manufacturers are looking for their orientation.LEDinisde analyzes the future development of the industry through the historical development of LED history.
In terms of technology, the past industry has focused on the improvement of LED component efficiency. However, as the technology matures, future manufacturers will focus more on the integration and integration of the system.
In the aspect of application, the application of the past market depends mainly on the LED efficiency and reduce the price to replace the traditional light source, the future application of gradually evolved into a LED through various features to create a new application. (LED tube light)
In the part of the supply chain, because of the low investment threshold of the LED industry in the past, there are so many people who have invested in it.However, with the fierce competition in the past ten years, Evergrande trend is obvious, and future LED suppliers are bound to have a certain scale to survive. (LED tube light)
Liang fubo, vice President of crystal power (jiangxi) co., LTD.
In the past, CSP has always been a niche market, and 2017 is considered to be the year of CSP. This year, CSP began to infiltrate slowly and began to enter some lighting products, and the scale still rose. (LED tube light)
At this meeting, the crystal energy photoelectric beam volvos from CSP introduction, CSP development trend, composite material reflecting bowl cup structure CSP technical features and crystal energy photoelectric in CSP on the progress of four aspects. (LED tube light)
LED packaging technology from pins to SMD, high power to COB, liang fubo believes that the next generation of packaging technology is CSP.At present CSP is divided into two types: stents and non-stents.Among them, the stent is represented by the sky, the hundred million light, the star, the new century;No stents include samsung/Seoul semiconductor, lumileds, crystal power, SAN 'an, Japan, crystal energy.At the same time, Mr Leung said NICHIA predicted that all of the 1W and 1W high-power packaging products would be replaced by CSP in the future, which would be the pioneer of unsupported CSP technology. (LED tube light)
LEDinside senior analyst yu bin.
In 2017, the size of China's LED packaging market is expected to reach 65.9 billion yuan, up 12% year on year.On the supply side, the fastest growth is still on the mainland, at 15%.With the rapid development of automobile industry, international manufacturers are growing at 8%.Taiwan's manufacturers declined slightly.After several years of development, China LED packaging industry competition is gradually changing, from the international factory, Taiwan and the mainland local factory three camps, evolved into the present contract (behind international factory), made in Taiwan on the mainland factory local and mainland factory three camps, almost the same as the industry environment, market competition is still in the short term is difficult to ease. (LED tube light)
Yuan ruihong: the application trend of EMC products in lighting and emerging markets. (LED tube light)
Yuan ruihong, director of research and development of tiandian optoelectronics.
In recent years, with the increasing of global lighting market, according to the LEDinside data, the market size reached a peak of 332.99 billion by 2019.The alternative lighting market is saturated, while industry, construction, landscape, outdoor and special commercial lighting will continue to grow. (LED tube light)
The main LED in the lighting application field is the medium power LED device, with nearly 50% market share in nearly three years.Meanwhile, the medium power LED market is currently dominated by the 2835 and EMC 3030 specifications of the PPA/PCT. (LED tube light)
Faced with the challenge of selling price, PCT 2835 has some penetration in EMC 3030 market. (LED tube light)
However, the quality of EMC products is more stable than that of PPA and PCT.At present EMC is mainly located in the middle and high-end market.In the future, it will be applied to high power and ultra high power, thus penetrating into more ceramic and COB markets.EMC also has a unique advantage over the future of the invisible market. (LED tube light)
Wu chaohui: technology and application innovation of DPC ceramic substrate from LED to VCSEL laser. (LED tube light)
Wu chaohui, director of kaide technology ceramic components division.
For a long time, the conductive material metal can not be separated by thermoelectricity, and the insulation materials do not heat the heat, so that the former power type LED has the problem of thermoelectric separation.To solve this problem, you need a product that can both heat and heat.Dongguan KaiChang zhao-hui wu DE ceramics division, has solution to solve this problem so far, but there are copper heat sink and chip large difference of thermal expansion coefficient, thermal mismatch stress big, poor heat conduction thermal resistance, such as insulating layer thin deficiency.In order to optimize these deficiencies, kaichang introduced DPC ceramic substrate, which is directly coated with copper ceramic substrate. (LED tube light)
In addition to the application of LED lighting field, on the blue ocean market UVLED, VCSEL, zhao-hui wu is introduced, the current UV LED encapsulation cannot contain organic matter, the main packaging scheme mainly ceramic + metal DAMS glue binder and HTCC high temperature co-firing ceramic substrates are two kinds of schemes.However, the two schemes have the insufficiency of organic matter, non-waterproofing and curved warping deformation, and the substrate cost is high, and the 3D shape DPC substrate can solve these problems.As for the VCSEL part, wu chaohui said that the advantage of DPC is more incisive and incisive. (LED tube light)
Wang ting: the market trend analysis of Chinese headlights in 2018. (LED tube light)
LEDinside senior analyst wang ting.
The Chinese passenger car market is very high for LED, especially when the lamps can express the characteristics of the vehicle, which is the main driving force that the car factory is willing to import.In 2017, the LED value of Chinese passenger cars is expected to be close to 740 million us dollars. From the long-term growth perspective, the two are headlights and fog lamps by 2020. (LED tube light)
In the new energy vehicle segment, Chinese government subsidies will increasingly focus on high-performance, low-energy products, and the implementation of the two-point policy will have a huge impact on China's auto industry.The rapid development of new energy vehicles will make the energy-saving demand of the headlights more significant, which will play an active role in the introduction of LED headlights. (LED tube light)
At present in front of the Chinese car market, dominated by international companies LED supplier, but manufacturers are through the acquisition of local methods such as integration of industrial chain, the future is expected from front loading market into the domestic vehicle supply chain gradually. (LED tube light)
Wang jiangbo: research and prospect of new generation of LED chip technology for display. (LED tube light)
Wang jiangbo, vice President of hua can optoelectronics.
In recent years, LED display products have been growing at a high speed, and LED display technology has been continuously improving.From the initial indoor outdoor screen to the small space LED display in recent years, the technology has been continuously upgraded, and the spacing of the display screen is getting smaller and smaller, and the mincing and MicroLED technology are beginning to appear. (LED tube light)
According to LEDinside data, the global LED display market in 2017 is $50.92 billion, of which the market of indoor small space (less than or less than P2.5) is $11,410 million, and the compound annual growth rate of 2017 to 2021 is expected to be 12%. (LED tube light)
Micro level of the LED and if arrive, its application to intelligent wear small size and AR/VR, the large size of the tablet and TV, in the end whether it can used in smartphones depends on can progress of technology and cost, in accordance with radical prediction research institutions, the demand of 2021-2025 epitaxial wafer will be in 1 million pieces to 9 million pieces of 6 inches per year. (LED tube light)
As the spacing between screens gets smaller and smaller, new requirements for LED chips are being made.When it comes to minis, the chip requires an upside-down RGB chip that needs to be upgraded from a small space to a higher parameter, because it requires lower thermal resistance, better vision, and higher reliability.Jiang-bo wang, said about the higher demands of flip chip RGB chip, its key technology is mainly contains of P type reflective and extension layer production, insulation layer production area lies between N/P connection, easy to welding design and technology four red substrate transfer technology. (LED tube light)
By MicroLED level, the technical requirements higher, its core is the main key technology is mainly the height of the epitaxial material consistency, accuracy control of micron grade chip production and yield, transfer of a huge amount of indicates rate, the effective implementation of full-color, control circuit, drive and lagging design and effective repair aspect of bad points. (LED tube light)
Wang juxian: 2018LED display industry trend analysis.
LEDinside analyst wang juxian.
Is affected by the global economic recession, the global LED display overall market growth is limited, but due to the development in recent years, small spacing of LED display, display the market demand to open again, the 2017 global LED display the size of the market for $5.092 billion, including indoor small spacing (P2.5) or less after the rapid development of a few years ago, will continue to maintain growth, global LED small spacing display the size of the market in 2017 for $1.141 billion, forecast CAGR of 12% from 2017 to 2021.The performance of leading manufacturers will continue to grow. From 2016 to 2017, the market share of the top eight manufacturers will increase from 78% to 86%, and the market will be highly concentrated.It is estimated that there will be no big changes in the market share ranking of the eight major manufacturers by 2018, but the market concentration will be further improved. (LED tube light)
The manufacturer is actively engaged in research and development to develop the product spacing below P1.0. Currently, the minimum spacing can reach P0.7. (LED tube light)
And mainstream already from last year's sales size P1.7 - P2.0 into P1.2 1.6 this year, with further reduce the cost, consumers are increasingly demanding the display effect, mainstream sales pitch in 2018 is expected to continue to move to a smaller spacing. (LED tube light)
Ye guoguang: the consumer market is fully launched, and VCSEL has become popular in the small market. (LED tube light)
Senior industry expert ye guoguang.
The global VCSEL market is now close to $800m and is expected to grow to $2.1bn by 2020, according to Mr Ye, while short-distance fibre-optic data accounts for nearly half of the market.And the main growth mainly for low energy light in the field of large data storage, servers, and high capacity in data center, the demand of rapid exchange of VCSEL is increasing, consumer electronics products of gesture recognition and 3 d sensing technology import and medical diagnosis and treatment in the field of medical application. (LED tube light)
In particular, with apple's new model, the consumption market will be fully activated.Ye guoguang thinks, the main performance is two aspects.On the one hand, the second echelons of high-end models, led by huawei, OPPO, VIVO, samsung and xiaomi, will respond quickly and popularize.VCSEL laser him mad after production supply chain formed, on the other hand, will drive prices comprehensive civilian, AR glasses, radar, and a series of intelligent driving subvert our application will completely get rapid popularization from conceptualization niche markets. (LED tube light)
Wang fei: analysis of competition pattern of LED chip.
LEDinside chief analyst wang fei.
Mr. Wang fei, chief analyst of LEDinside, analyzed the competition pattern of China's LED chip market.Wang thought from the perspective of demand, demand remains due to the LED industry as a whole, superposition of the global LED chip manufacturing orders the trend of shift to Chinese manufacturers, whole China LED chip market demand remained significant growth. (LED tube light)
However, with the expansion of China's LED chip industry in 2017, the huge increase in supply cannot be ignored, and the growth rate of supply is higher than that of demand.The supply and demand of the overall LED chip market has been transformed from a shortage of supply and demand for a year and a half to supply and demand balance even slightly more than demand.Although the supply pressure is not small, the current expansion has formed a relatively good supply structure, so the LED chip market is expected to avoid the fierce price competition. (LED tube light)