Development Trend Of Lighting Industry

- Feb 27, 2019-

In July 2017, the 13th Five-Year Development Plan of Semiconductor Lighting Industry was promulgated. According to the planning requirements, by 2020, the total output value of semiconductor lighting industry will reach 100 billion yuan, and the proportion of LED lighting products sales to the total sales of lighting electrical industry will reach 70%. So what is the development trend of the lighting industry?


Through the analysis of the lighting industry, we know that the penetration rate of LED lighting will continue to rise, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 70% by 2020. Moreover, the replacement cycle of LED lamps is about five years. In 2012, China formally began to implement the policy of banning incandescent lamps. The market scale of LED lighting is expanding rapidly. 2018 is the first renewal cycle. It is expected that the release of future demand for replacement of lighting lamps will still bring market space. In addition, the renovation of second-hand houses will also provide incremental demand for lighting market. It is generally believed that there will be a round of renovation demand in the past 10 years or so, which will expand the scope of the past 10 years by 20%. From 2005 to 2009, during the period of rapid development of real estate in China, the sales area of commercial housing CAGR is 14.3%. From 2018, the first wave of renovation boom will be ushered, which will provide support for the sustainable development of LED lighting in the future.


With the gradual maturity of LED technology, the price of LED light source has steadily declined, replacing the accelerated period in an all-round way. With the continuous maturity of LED technology, the lighting efficiency of LED has been improved continuously, from 20 lm/W in 2003 to 160 lm/w in 2016, which is 6-10 times that of incandescent lamp and about twice that of fluorescent lamp. Moreover, the luminous angle of fluorescent lamp is only one third of that of fluorescent lamp. Generally, 18W LED lamp tube can replace 42W traditional fluorescent lamp tube, 7W bulb can replace 50W incandescent lamp, and its service life is longer than that of incandescent lamp Traditional lamps and lanterns have higher efficiency and more obvious power saving effect. On the other hand, the price of LED light source has steadily declined. Now it is near the price of traditional lamps and lanterns. There is no resistance to replace them. The accelerated replacement of LED has begun.


It is predicted that the market scale of LED general lighting will maintain a growth rate of about 20%. In July 2017, the 13th Five-Year Development Plan of Semiconductor Lighting Industry was promulgated. According to the planning requirements, by 2020, the total output value of semiconductor lighting industry will reach 100 billion yuan, and the proportion of LED lighting products sales to the total sales of lighting electrical industry will reach 70%. On this basis, we assume that the overall market size of China's LED lighting industry will reach 100 billion yuan by 2020, and the penetration rate of the LED lighting industry will reach 70%. At the same time, based on the fact that LED general lighting accounts for the increasing market scale of LED applications and the overall market scale of LED applications, it is estimated that the market scale of LED general lighting in China will reach 445.2 billion yuan by 2020.


LED lighting penetration will continue to rise, and it is expected to reach 70% by 2020. Moreover, the replacement cycle of LED lamps is about five years. In 2012, China formally began to implement the policy of banning incandescent lamps. The market scale of LED lighting is expanding rapidly. 2018 is the first renewal cycle. It is expected that the release of future demand for replacement of lighting lamps will still bring market space. In addition, the renovation of second-hand houses will also provide incremental demand for lighting market. It is generally believed that there will be a round of renovation demand in the past 10 years or so, and the scope of the past 10 years will be expanded by 20%. From 2005 to 2009, during the period of rapid development of real estate in China, the sales area of commercial housing CAGR is 14.3%. From 2018, the first wave of renovation boom will be ushered, which will provide support for the sustainable development of LED lighting in the future.


Through a simple analysis of the development trend of the lighting industry, we know that the LED industry is also the key industry supported by our country. Since 2009, the government has made great efforts to subsidize the upstream and middle industries of LED, resulting in rapid expansion of production capacity, declining terminal prices of LED lighting products, and the penetration rate of LED lighting is still rising rapidly from 3.3% in 2012 to 44% in 2016. With the completion of the integration of the upper and middle reaches of the LED industry in China, the price of LED lighting products will continue to decline in limited space, and the speed of penetration will slow down. It is expected that the penetration rate of LED lighting will increase by 6% annually in the future, and it is expected that the penetration rate of LED lighting in China will reach 68% by 2020. Above is the author's simple analysis of the development trend of the lighting industry.