Overview: Traditional products continue to decline, replacing weak market growth
In the first quarter of 2019, China's total export volume of lighting and electrical appliances industry was about 9 billion US dollars, up 1.85% year-on-year, with a slight overall growth.
In the first quarter of 2019, China exported about 2.244 billion light source products, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year; 430 million incandescent lamps and 101 million halogen tungsten lamps; 217 million compact fluorescent lamps and 0.71 billion straight-tube/ring fluorescent lamps; 113 million HID lamps; 1.413 billion LED light sources, accounting for 63% and 52% of the total; 37% of traditional light sources still have a replacement market. Potential.
1. Traditional light source products:
With the replacement of related LED lighting products, traditional lighting products include incandescent lamp and halogen tungsten lamp, compact fluorescent lamp and straight tube/ring fluorescent lamp of fluorescent lamp, high pressure mercury lamp, high pressure sodium lamp and metal halide lamp of high-intensity gas discharge lamp, all of which have a double-digit decline, of which halogen tungsten lamp has the largest decline.
Previously, halogen tungsten lamps were favored by European and American markets because of their excellent light quality and high efficiency compared with incandescent lamps. However, because of their main export markets, Europe, America and Australia have issued a ban on halogen tungsten lamps for general lighting, making them really enter the downward range. As can be seen from the figure, September 1, 2018 is the node of the European Union to phase out some non-directional halogen tungsten lamps for general lighting. Since August, 2018, the export quantity and amount of halogen tungsten lamps have declined sharply. The unit price has risen because the halogen tungsten lamp products which are not prohibited from sale are mainly reflective and special-purpose products with higher prices. In this situation, related LED replacement light source products such as LED filament lamp and other similar products will usher in a new round of opportunities.
2. Lamps and lanterns products:
The main lighting products, including the HS code is 94051000 "chandeliers and electrical lighting on the ceiling or wall", that is, fixed lighting; and the HS code is 94052000 "electrical table lamp, bedside lamp or floor lamp", which can be moved Type lamps, HS code is 94054090 "Unlisted electric lights and lighting devices", that is, outdoor lighting and some LED lamps, etc. These types of lighting products mainly reflect the basic needs of the national economy, and the development curve of the entire export is very close, development The curve also shows that the global economy is at a low point and is in a difficult recovery period. The proportion of LED products is also increasing. The integrated lighting products such as downlights, panel lights, high-bay lights, and flooding/flooding lights have gradually become the main force. (Note: Every year in February, due to the Spring Festival, it has always been an off-season for export)
3, LED products:
Generally speaking, with the rapid advancement of LED lighting products in recent years, the cost performance has been further improved, and it has gradually spread to various fields of general lighting. Exports have also ushered in rapid growth, but demand has been shrinking and growing. The objective reasons such as the increase in the base number and the peak value of the LED caused by the long life of the LED are caused by the slowdown in the growth of LED lighting products. Its share of the entire export has increased year by year, reflecting the gradual replacement of LEDs for traditional lighting.
In the first quarter of 2019, the export value of LED lighting products was about 6.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 72% of the total export value, a slight increase of 2.97%. (Note: All LED lighting product data mainly comes from multiple customs HS codes, including 85395000 "Light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs (tubes)" added in 2017 in the electric light source category, namely LED bulbs and tubes; 94051000 "chandeliers and electric lighting on ceilings or walls", ie fixed lamps, 94052000 "electrical table lamps, bedside lamps or floor lamps", portable lighting, 94053000 "complete sets of lamps for Christmas trees" And 94054090 "Unlisted electric lights and lighting devices", including other LED lamps and outdoor lamps.)
Among them, the number of LED replacement light sources exported reached 1.413 billion, an increase of 22.52%; the export value was 1.289 billion US dollars, down 5.29%; the export unit price was only 0.91 US dollars, down 22.69% year-on-year, a record low. Among them, the export price of LED tube is about 2.27 US dollars, and the unit price of bulb export is only about 0.73 US dollars.
From the monthly data of LED replacement light source exports, since the second half of 2018, the monthly export volume of LED replacement light sources has increased year by year, but the export value is negative growth year-on-year. It can be said that although the replacement market still has certain potential, However, it is quite close to its replacement peak; and since January 2018, the monthly product price has been lower than the same period of the previous year, which also reflects the cruel and sustained price competition in overseas markets.
Second, the export destination country: the North American market has declined, the ASEAN market has fallen back
From the global LED lighting market map, China, the United States and Europe are the three major markets, the United States is the single largest export market; China's domestic market also has a large space, the channel is king; the European market seems uniform but the essence is It is a consortium of relatively dispersed sub-markets filled with individualized differentiated needs; the Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Middle East non-markets are fast-growing potential markets composed of emerging economies; and the Japanese market is developing early due to LEDs. Faster, LED light sources are approaching saturation, LED integrated lighting is in the ascendant.
LED lighting products are exported to countries of destination. The traditional big households in North America, the European Union, and Japan are still in an important leading position. Among them, the United States remains as the unshakable export market for China's number one lighting products. The 10-month Sino-US trade friction has also partially offset the impact of tariffs due to the depreciation of the RMB, the increase in the export tax rebate rate of related products and the price increase of US companies, but exported to the United States. In response to trade frictions, there is a concentrated impulse in the second half of 2018. By the first quarter of 2019, the US market is still in the stage of digesting inventories, so it has a decline of about 10% year-on-year; the German, British, French, and Japanese markets are relatively paced. steady.
In terms of emerging economies, the performance of the ASEAN market, which was eye-opening last year, has declined in the first quarter of this year. This is related to the adjustment of the ASEAN countries represented by Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia last year. However, the market is undoubtedly still has a vigorous development momentum, and the future is still optimistic; in the BRICS countries, the growth of the Brazilian and Russian markets with poor political and economic conditions is weak, and India’s trade with SKD and CKD between China and China is prevalent. The volume has further declined; the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East are highlights of the market.
In terms of LED replacement light source products, the price of LED replacement light source products in various countries is mostly in a downward trend, and the average price of 1 US dollar market is less than half. The price competition is fierce. The unit price of the developed economies is generally high, and the unit price in the Japanese market continues to be ridiculous. This explains the high export price of companies such as Alice, Konka, Puwei, and Gongzu, which are mainly in the Japanese market; Vietnam, the Philippines, and Russia. The market price of Indonesia and other markets continued to be low.
In terms of market performance, India, where the bulk trade is prevalent, and Iran, which has been heavily sanctioned by the United States, have both dropped their first 20 light source products. The performance of the six ASEAN main countries is still good, with Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia all in the top 20.
Third, export enterprises: price competition is becoming more and more fierce, the strategic adjustment of the head enterprises
In the first quarter of 2019, the total export value of the top 20 LED lighting products was about 800 million US dollars, accounting for 12.31% of the total LED exports; the top 40 enterprises' total exports were about 1.128 billion, accounting for 17.35% of the total LED exports. Among them, Rieter, Sunshine, and Debon are still in the top three, but they have fallen by about 25% year-on-year. Companies such as Philips, Northern New Energy, Shanpu, Chenhui, Haoyang, Minfeng, and Aigst grew rapidly.
Under the situation that the price competition in the international market is fierce and the LED replacement products are near the peak, the top companies such as Lidaxin, Sunshine, and Debon have begun to make active adjustments. They are consciously withdrawing from some “high-risk” markets and Low-margin business and increase the proportion of lamps and IoT products in the product.
LED replacement of light source exports, it is worth noting that the sun has a slight advantage over the years, the first name Rieter letter was the first quarter of 2019. In addition, the export value of the top 25 enterprises in the first quarter was about 630 million US dollars, accounting for 48.88% of the total export value of LED replacement light source products, and the concentration was higher. At the same time, the number of export enterprises has decreased compared with the previous two years. It can be said that the LED replacement light source, which is a large-scale standard export market, will also be a minority game in the future. The export concentration of several types of lighting products is relatively lower, so whether it is the expansion of large enterprises or the differentiation of SMEs. More depends on the development of integrated / modular lighting and IoT intelligent products.
From the situation that the average unit price of most export enterprises has decreased, it can be seen that the fierce price competition in overseas markets continues. The majority of export enterprises have to maintain a steady increase in export value in accordance with the larger export volume, and the profits are greatly squeezed. Therefore, although the export enterprises are working very hard, the increase is not increased, and the phenomenon of increasing income without increasing profits is now more common. Shanpu, Expressway, Chenhui, etc. mainly export LED lamps, so the unit price is significantly higher.
Among the LED replacement light sources, the pattern of LED bulbs has changed little, and the rankings are basically consistent with the ranking of the entire LED replacement light source. It is related to the strategic adjustment. The leading edge of Lidaxin, Sunshine and Debon in terms of bulb export volume and previous comparison Not so obvious; in addition, the growth of filament lamps has slowed down year on year.
In terms of management, the top name dispute between Shanpu and Yanda is getting better, and this mountain is slightly ahead, Chenhui (including Ruixin) continues to follow; Alice and Pu mainly play in the Japanese market, so the export price of products Maintain a high position.
In general, the export market for lighting products in the first quarter of 2019 was relatively flat, and LED's share of the entire export increased year by year, reflecting the continued replacement of LED products with traditional products. However, the price competition of LED replacement light sources has become fiercer and the profit pressure is relatively high, so some enterprises have made corresponding adjustments. Under the trend that the whole industry should go from scale to quality development, relevant export enterprises should clearly position themselves, give play to their advantages, and actively adjust and respond to changes.