The recent performance of the OLED sector is impressive, with a cumulative increase of 16.49% in the three trading days since February 11. Many stocks have been trading up and down continuously. Industry insiders pointed out that as a new generation of flat panel display technology, OLED compared to LCD has the characteristics of power saving, light, large visual angle, flexibility and so on. Samsung and Huawei will release folding mobile phones in the near future. However, the cost of OLED is still high, and it will take time for the industry to break out in an all-round way.
It is expected to gradually replace LCD.
Samsung is the first OLED manufacturer in the world. In addition to meeting its own needs, Samsung also supplies Apple. Starting with the iPhone X, many new Apple computers use OLED screens. Some of Huawei's high-end computers also use OLED screens. According to China Securities News, LG and Beijing Oriental supply Huawei mainly.
Because of its advantages of power saving, light weight, large visual angle and flexibility, OLED has been widely used in many fields, including mobile phones, AR, VR, car electronics, wearable devices, tablet computers, etc.
In terms of screen structure, OLED can be divided into soft screen and hard screen. The main difference lies in the material. Hard-screen OLED is made of glass polarizer and TFT substrate, while soft-screen OLED polarizer and TFT substrate are made of flexible material. Soft screen can fold, hard screen can not fold.
Dr Deng Qingyun, inventor of OLED technology, said earlier that "with the development of technology, the price of OLED will be comparable to that of LCD." CITIC Securities pointed out that OLED is self-luminescent screen, simple manufacturing process, mature industry, the cost can be lower than the same size LCD products. Samsung, LG, Beijing Oriental and other traditional LCD panel manufacturers have turned to OLED manufacturing. Among them, Samsung has closed the mainland of China's advanced LCD production line, focusing on OLED production. In the small size market, especially in the mobile phone market, the application of flexible OLED will become the trend, and it is expected to gradually replace LCD as the next generation of mainstream display products.
Folding screen is still in water test stage
It is understood that Samsung will hold a new product launch on February 20, when the flagship new Galaxy S10 will be released. Industry insiders expect Samsung's first commercial folding screen mobile phone product to be launched at this conference. In addition to Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, millet, Apple and other mainstream mobile phone manufacturers are adding codes in the "folding screen" layout. Among them, Huawei and OPPO's first folding screen mobile phone products are expected to be released at Barcelona MWC (World Mobile Communications Congress) in late February.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the development of screen from hard screen - > curved screen - > folding screen - > flexible screen is a big trend, and both curved screen and folding screen are just transitional stages. CITIC Securities believes that the current flexible screen is developing in the direction of flexibility and foldability, and the ultimate goal is to achieve a crimpable state. Guangfa Securities said that the current flexible OLED applications on mobile phones are mainly planar (such as the iPhone X) or fixed bending (such as Galaxy S9). In order to achieve foldable function, it is necessary to adjust several links in flexible OLED display module, including cover plate, OCA glue, polarizer and so on.
Group Intelligence Consulting believes that due to the maturity of the supply chain, in 2019, the global foldable terminal mobile phone is still in the test stage, and the real realization of mass terminal sales is still facing higher technical and supply chain challenges. It is estimated that the global sales of foldable smart terminals will be about 900,000 in 2019.
Cost reduction is the key
CITIC Securities pointed out that the total cost of flexible OLED is still high. The main reasons include the low productivity of PI film which flexible OLED display must use at present; the high depreciation of equipment leads to higher production costs; the low rate of good products due to insufficient technical maturity; and the relatively low bargaining power of modular products such as chips, cover boards and flexible circuit boards, which rely on the supply of upstream manufacturers.
Chen Yanshun, chairman and CEO of Beijing Oriental Executive Committee, said in an interview with reporters of China Securities News earlier that "in the first half of 2018, OLED market development was not as expected, especially in the mobile phone market growth rate was not high. The main reason is not that the products and technology are not good, but because they are too expensive.
Chen Yanshun pointed out that the price of products using flexible OLED display screen is more than 5,000 yuan. In 2018, the global price of mobile phones over 5,000 yuan is about 179 million. Among them, flexible OLED mobile phones are 95 million. With the development of OLED technology, the gradual improvement of the rate of good products and the decrease of cost, the price of OLED mobile phones will go down. According to market research firm GfK, in 2018, the global sales volume of mobile phones with a price of more than RMB 3000 will be about 330 million; there is at least more than double growth space in the flexible OLED market.
By the end of 2018, 9 small-scale AMOLED production lines have been mass-produced in mainland China, and 7 production lines will be mass-produced in the future. Wu Shuyuan, a senior analyst at Qunzi Consulting, said that with a 6-inch mobile phone as an example, the production capacity of 16 production lines already produced and announced in mainland China at the present stage was released at a yield of 70%, which could meet the needs of nearly 700 million mobile phones per year.